You’re thinking a “hedge” is something like a Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme, or maybe a small, furry member of the rodent family, or perhaps a row of bushes in England. Aren’t you? I don’t think so.
A hedge bet in football betting (or other sports wagering, for that matter) refers to betting on both teams in the same game in certain situations that will enable you to risk a small amount of money in the hope of winning 10 times or 20 times your original wager. “Sounds crazy,” you say? You will find only several opportunities throughout a betting season, but you must be aware of the fundamental concept to seize them when they occur. This article will teach you how to identify these opportunities.
Let’s say for example that the San Francisco 49ers are scheduled to play the New York Giants next Sunday afternoon. When the spread opens, let’s say the oddsmakers post the opening line for the game, favoring the Giants by 6 points. That is, if you bet on the Giants, you have to give the 49ers 6 points, and if you bet on the 49ers you get 6 points. But as time goes by, the Giants become over-bet in New York, just as the 49ers are over-bet in San Francisco. What local wagering services (bookies) do to balance their books is adjust their point spreads to attract additional bettors. As you know, the ideal situation for a bookie is to have equal amounts bet in both directions. In that way they bear no risk, and are guaranteed to win.
For example, New York bookies may change the spread to -7 to attract 49er bettors, while San Francisco bookies may lower the spread to +5 to attract Giant money.
Here comes the Hedge — When this happens, there may be an opportunity to bet on the NY Giants at -5, and at the same time bet on the 49ers at +7, and hope that the final point difference falls within 4½ and 7½. If it does, you’re a big winner! What did he say?
Let’s look at some real numbers in the table below to understand the situation more clearly. Here are the potential outcomes of $110 bet on the Giants at -5 and on the 49ers at +7, for all possible point differences:
In the second column, “$110 Bet on Giants at -5,” you lose if the Giants fail to cover, Push at 5 points, and win $100 at 6 points or greater. The third column, “$110 Bet on 49ers at +7,” you win $100 at a 6 point or less difference, Push at 7 points, and lose $110 when the point difference is greater than 7.
From looking at the right most column labeled “Total Win (Loss),” you can see the financial results of all combinations of point differences between the Giants and 49ers. The Conclusion: The most you can lose is $10, but you can win $100 or $200.
When should you hedge?
1) when the opening point spread is less than 15 points and the difference between the spreads listed by two bookies is 2½ points (i.e., 14 & 11 ½), or
2) when the difference between the spreads listed by two bookies is 2 points and the number 3 or 7 is included within the difference (i.e., 2½ & 4½ or 6 & 8), respectively.
Also, #1 above can be done with a 2 point differential instead of 2½, just as #2 above can be done with a 1½ point differential instead of 2, but then you will be cutting down your actual advantage.
With online gambling these days, you’re less likely to find betting line differences by region, but you certainly will find them as weather changes, players get injured or suspended, or the outcome of a game no longer means anything, as what happens at the end of the season.
When you win both sides of a Hedge bet, you’ll feel so smart, you might burst? Visit http://www.NFLFootballIntelligence.com for other insightful articles on beating the spread.
Point Difference (Giants/49ers) $110 Bet on Giants $110 Bet on 49ers Total Win(Loss)
<5 -$110 +$100 -$10
5 Push +$100 +$100
6 +$100 +$100 +$200
7 +$100 Push +$100
>7 +$100 -$110 -$10
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